Does Lockheed-Martin have a future? F-35 in Doubt?

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he wanted to accelerate the purchase of F-35s through 2015. In the Market Watch article I read, that figure was from 513 F-35 fighters through 2015 and up to a fleet of 2,443 F-35s eventually. But in latest report from the Pentagon, planned purchases for fiscal year 2011 will be about 391 - a reduction of 122 fighters through the same year.

This cutback for Lockhed-Martin which was trying to increase its production rate of the aircraft to one a day in the next 5-6 years. Higher production rates mean a lower cost for each individual airplane. Plus Lockheed will be relying heavily on automated and assembly-line production methods to meet its target goals.

While the United States is the primary customer, other countries are wanting some of the action as well. Such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Australia, and Turkey. Sales of the F-35 expect to top out over $16 billion by 2016. Reporter Christopher Hinton in his article stated that this is 25% of Lockheed-Martin's total revenue. This is information provided for by Bernstein Research. Each F-35 costs about $83 million right now and costs per plane by 2014 is expecting to go down to $80 million per airplane.

The title for my post is more tongue in cheek than any actual threats to production. But I have been thinking lately that these big companies in the US Industrial/Military complex are pricing themselves out of business with their biggest customer - the United States of America.

Not being an insider, I wonder if smaller companies - say Cessna, Piper, Air Tractor, etc., be given funding to produce flying prototypes of next generation fighter aircraft. Look at the problems the USAF is having trying to get a replacement for the air tanker role. It is so bogged down with politics now. Boeing or Northrup/Grumman(EADS). There is a article on James Hasik blog you ought to take a look at. See the ref section for the link. I mean, we are at the point that we might as well split the purchase of those tankers between the two companies.

These other companies should be able to come up with fresh ideas that do not cost in the billions the same old way that Lockheed and Boeing keep on doing for the past 50 years. We keep finding ourselves in COIN operations and not World War Three. While I realize that we need to have equipment that can operate in WW3, those same fighters do not have the abilities that aircraft set up for COIN operations need to have.

And I guess the main thrust of my post here is that we seem to be stuck in a groove. We want fighters for World War Three - go to Lockheed-Martin. Want a fighter for the Navy-go to Northrup/Grumman. Need a bomber or tanker-Boeing or Airbus now.

Maybe in 2010, things will settle down as far as how new equipment for our military will be planned for and purchased.

Bloomberg also had a new article on military programs January 8, 2010 by Tony Capaccio (see link below). It delt more with Def. Secretary Robert Gates restoring funding to several programs including the C-130 upgrade program.

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Ref. Market Watch, Christopher Hinton, January 7, 2010. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pentagon-may-cut-production-for-lockheeds-f-35-2010-01-07?siteid=rss&rss=1).

James Shasik, January 3, 2010 (http://www.jameshasik.com/weblog/2010/01/four-issues-with-the-usafs-tanker-rfp-and-an-analysis-of-the-split-buy-concept-part-one.html).

Bloomberg, Tony Capaccio, January 8, 2010. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a..NOafAKjFw)

USAF getting Back into COIN Fighters

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is overcoming the "Legacy" pros in the Air Force. aka the jet fighter jocks who still are fighting World War Three instead of the Counterinsurgency operations it has found itself in over the past few decades. With the Stop order in place to end procurement of the F-22 at 187 airframes, the USAF now has some money to actually spend on other projects.

Such as their recent request to launch a program to buy 100 small, light fighter aircraft for strike, armed reconnaissance and aircraft training duties that can support Irregular Warfare.

What are the possible candidates for this USAF 100 palne buy?

(1)Embraer EMB-314 Super Tucano

(2)Hawker Beechcraft AT-6 Texan II

(3)Korean Aerospace KO-1 Wong Bee

(4)Pilatus PC-9M.

(5)Air Tractor AT-802U (outside chance - but I like it)

(6)Revive the old Piper "Enforcer" (aka a upgraded P-51)

While researching this article, I came across an osting on www.wired.com about (former) Blackwater private security contractor (now known as "Xe"); was also getting into the COIN airforce picture. However, that was back in 2007. Nothing new so far in 2009 if Xe getting into COIN ops.

Did discover a photograph on Danger Room on April 10, 2009 that I wanted to post with this article. Its a photograph of a F-22 parked on the ramp and in the background, the typical "Air Raid: Pearl Harbor" airshow was taking place. A AT-6 converted into a Japanese Zero for the movie "Tora, Tora, Tora" lays down a fake smoke trail after a Kate has "dropped" a bomb in the background. I view this picture symbolic of what the USAF is actually facing in the world today.

Its a COIN World and you need some "slow, low" movers to haul bombs to drop on the enemy than the sleek machine parked in front.

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REf. Wired.com/Danger Room "Air Force Stalled for Years on New 'Light' Fighter" by David Axe. August 19, 2009. (http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/08/air-force-stalled-for-years-on-new-light-fighter/).

Wired.com/Danger Room "Air Force to Get New "Light' Fighter. by David Axe. August 11, 2009. (http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/08/air-force-to-get-new-light-fighter/).

Wired.com/Danger Room, "Blackwater Buying Counter-Insurgency Aircraft (Updated)" by Sharon Weinberger. August 27, 2007 (http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2007/08/blackwater-buys/).

Storming Media.us. a 35 page monograph created in December 2005(A383444) "Back to Basics: An Aviation Solution to Counterinsurgent Warfare" paper by Arthur D. Davis, Air Command And Staff Coll Maxwell, AFB, AL. to order a copy, this is the link (http://www.stormingmedia.us/38/3834/A383444.html).

Photograph from wired.com from article "Obama Asks for Stealth Jets in Iraq, Astan Budget" (http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/04/obama-asks-for-stealth-jets-in-iraq-astan-budget/).

Aerospace, Technology, Paranormal, and UFOs News, July 26, 2009 (http://aerospacedreams.blogspot.com/2009/07/return-of-ov-10-what-about-f-7f.html)

F-22 Saved From the Budget Ax!

The fiscal 2010 budget for the Pentagon moved through the House Armed Services Committee, where the lawmakers approved a $550 billion defense bill to keep Lockheed Martin's F-22 Raptor program going on for another two years.

The fighter jocks where all upset and up in arms over the fact that their 5th generation plaything was going to be cut. A last minute amendment provided $368.8 million towards the purchase of 12 of the fighter jets in fiscal year 2011. Measure passed by a 31-30 vote.

Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Utah) told reporters, "It does send a message that we do want to keep the production line open. And does give us the chance to fight again. Rep. Bishop was the sponsor of the bill.

This was a slap in the face to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who decided to cut more than 50 weapon systems in his 2010 defense budget proposal. Gates was wanting to just get four more Raptors and then shut the production line down. Instead, he was planning on a multiyear procurement of Navy fighter jets and buying just one type of jet engine(the one used in the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF)). He also wanted to stop research into the developement of a new bomber.

The committee did add the money for purchase of the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter and the EA-18G Growler. It also granted the Navy the authority to sign a multiyear contract. They pulled funding from the JSF to do this.

One of the key reasons that this vote went the way it did was a letter sent out to Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) by General John Corley, the current commander of the USAF Air Combat Command, who wrote that a "fleet of 187 F-22s puts execution of our current national military strategy at high risk in the near-to midterm."

The F-22 survival still must pass senate approval when the Senate Armed Services Commitee meets to mark up its own defense spending bill. It might provide for 20 F-22s in 2009, four in 2010, and 12 in 2011. Critics are correct in pointing out that this is an inefficient way of going about building a fighter plane.

Pratt & Whitney has to ward off somehow a upcoming battle on the hill about the House support to have another company come in to build an alternative second engine for the JSF. Rep Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) - chairman of the Armed Services Air and Land Forces Subcommittee summed things up this way.

"Being tied to one engine is too high an operational risk to take." He told reporters that 90 percent of the US airfleet of JSFs would be powered by the P&W engine.

Still on the cutting room floor is the Airborne Laser, the Kinetic Energy Interceptor, and the Multiple Kill Vehicle.

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Ref. Politico.com, "Defense cuts rolled back in House" by Jen Dimascio, June 18, 2009 (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23858.html#ixzz0IoZs5rZf&C).

American Defense Cuts

AP News Report (Washington D.C.) - Defense Secretary Robert Gates announched deep cuts to some of the Pentagon's biggest weapons programs like stopping production of the USAF's $140 billion F-22 fighter jet prgram.

The U.S. Army modernization program will be rolled back and a new search-and-rescue helicopter will be cut out as well.

So far, it looks like the battle between the air-tanker companies will go on and more and more KC-135s are grounded for much needed repairs and upgrades.  

UPDATE:  F-22 not totally cancelled.  Enough pressure was brought forth to keep production going at a trinkle.  Boeing's C-17 was also, it seemed, saved. New replacement long-range bombers have been scrapped. 

What appears to be scrapped right now Future Combat System.

Missile Defense Program scaled back program cost by $1.4 billion.  The second Boeing airborne laser demonstration aircraft is cancelled.

For the Navy, Gates proposes a 5-year build cycle of Aircraft Carriers. (This projects the Navy operating just 10 aircraft carriers by the year 2040). Plus the new DDG-1000 destroyers are to be built in just one shipyard in a cost savings move.  And at General Dynamics, they will restart DDG-51 building at the Northrop shipyard.

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Ref.  ( http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D97D47CG0&show_article=1 ), ( http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0640476720090406)